Two Predictions for Open Source Software in 2009

Prediction #1: The adoption of open source will accelerate in 2009.

Open source is on a tear. It's being adopted more quickly and more widely than ever before. Evidence: In November, Gartner announced survey results that found that 85% of enterprises are already using open source software, and the remaining 15% plan to start using it soon. (And my guess is, a good portion of that 15% are already using it, but management doesn't know.)

On the Optaros blog, Bruno von Rotz offers a good summary of what's happened in 2008 in the world of open source, and a lot of it is encouraging news for open source vendors (sales growing faster than expected, more rounds of funding, etc.).

With companies in all industries hitting the pause button on spending, open source should prove especially attractive in 2009. If you're a project manager, and you're being asked to do more with less or even with practically nothing, you're likely to take a good, hard look at open source, at least for a pilot project, even if you've had qualms about the maturity or stability of open source products in your area of expertise.

Earlier this month, Gartner analysts advised their clients to prepare two IT budgets: one with a 2% increase in spending, the other with a 20% decrease in spending. If your IT budget really does get slashed by 20% or more, you'll have little choice but to consider software products that offer a basic version for free, and whose paid products have prices that will turn out to be highly negotiable.

Bottom line, then: 2009 will create many new opportunities for open source vendors to get their feet in the door.

Prediction #2: Many open source vendors will continue to struggle, and some well-known vendors will shut down.

Unfortunately, getting your foot in the door is no guarantee of success. Despite the impressive adoption of open source and the continued rounds of funding, many open source vendors are struggling to make money—in some cases, even after receiving many tens of millions of dollars of VC investments. The sad truth is that even some of the well known names in open source—companies with good products and impressively high numbers of downloads—are having trouble converting those downloads and installations into a viable business.

Part of the problem is that the free version of products are often good enough to satisfy customer requirements. If customers don't have to spend money to get features, and if the product is reliable enough (or not mission-critical), customers won't spend money on licensing and support.

Part of the problem is that while the download numbers are growing, the company has yet to find a repeatable sales model for converting downloads to sales; end user requirements are simply too varied to build a profitable business.

Part of the problem also is that free has to compete with cheap (or at least comparatively inexpensive). On the Open NMS blog, Tarus Balog recently pointed out that open source network management products have to compete with low-cost, easy-to-use products like Solar Winds. He's absolutely right. And Solar Winds has been on its own tear for many years, now. Another up-and-coming NMS platform is AdventNet's ManageEngine, which knits together network management and service desk functions into an easy-to-use, highly affordable whole. AdventNet now has tens of thousands of paying customers for its network management products—an enviable achievement from the point of view of many open source vendors. If price is what's driving you to open source, and you're not particularly interested in having access to a product's source code, you may end up choosing one of these highly affordable non-open source alternatives instead.

Another part of the problem with open source companies comes down to simple execution: building what customers really want rather that what the core development team feels comfortable with (especially if the company is VC-backed and has real targets to hit); solving customer problems promptly and effectively through support, documentation, and training; marketing well; etc. Most open source companies are developer-led organizations, and some (decidedly not all, but some) developer-led organizations fall into the trap of expecting their potential community to share the internal team's own predilections and priorities. (If you hear an engineering manager saying something like, "That should be reasonable, it shouldn't be that hard for the customer to figure out," stop the design discussion right there: customers should have to figure out almost nothing.)

A few vendors may find financial salvation by converting or substantially augmenting their open source business with a SaaS business and close deal that are SaaS subscriptions rather than on-premise software licenses. But for other vendors time will eventually run out. Investors will shift new funding other more viable ventures. Staff cuts will paralyze progress. Projects will be left to linger on SourceForge.

This is why I expect 2009 to be a mixed year for open source vendors. It will be a year of unprecedented opportunity for most, and a year of hard reckoning for some.

Zoho CloudSQL: An interview with Rodrigo Vaca

Earlier this week, Zoho announced CloudSQL, a new SQL interface to Zoho Reports, its popular Web application for online reporting and business intelligence. Zoho applications (in case you haven't heard of them) are credible alternatives to Google Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) applications such as Google Docs. Launched three years ago, the suite of Zoho applications has grown dramatically in number of applications, richness of features, and size of its user base. The company now boasts over 1 million users for its 19 applications. More applications are on the way.


Here's how Rodrigo Vaca, Zoho's Director of Marketing, described CloudSQL in a blog post earlier this week:

Zoho CloudSQL is a middleware technology that allows customers to interact with their business data stored in Zoho through the familiar SQL language. Customers are able to access Zoho cloud data using SQL on both other cloud applications as well as through traditional on-premises software.

At a high-level, Zoho CloudSQL serves as the bridge between the external application and the data stored inside Zoho. It receives the query in SQL, interprets it, delegates queries and aggregates results across the Zoho services.

There are in particular 3 things that stand out about Zoho CloudSQL:

• It's the first technology that allows customers to interact with their data on the cloud, from another cloud application or from an on-premises one through real SQL.


• It supports multiple SQL dialects. We support all the major (and even some not so major) ones: ANSI, Oracle, SQL Server, IBM DB2, MySQL, PostgreSQL and Informix.


• With our JDBC/ODBC drivers, developers can access data in the cloud just as easily as if it were stored in a local database.
  

A Quick Interview
I got in touch with Rodrigo Vaca to ask him a few follow-up questions.

JB: From your announcement, I'm gathering that CloudSQL is a SQL-based service for accessing data in Zoho applications. The interface will be of interest to engineers working on integration projects where they would like to simply work with SQL queries, rather than dealing with JSON or RESTful data access. Is this an accurate characterization?

RV: Yes, that's accurate. Zoho CloudSQL is about making the data in the Zoho cloud more accessible for our customers. SQL is something that most corporate developers know and are familiar with.


JB: The diagram on your December 2 blog post shows CloudSQL being able to access other Web services. Are there non-Zoho Web services you plan to support? Say, any Web services from StrikeIron, ProgrammableWeb, or even Google, etc.?

RV: Ah! You were paying attention! You noticed something that most other people missed. Yes, Zoho CloudSQL can be extended to non-Zoho services. At this point we're not focused or actively pursing that, since we need to first make sure that other Zoho services are accessible through CloudSQL first.

JB: Finally, I was intrigued to see that you're doing entity-mapping, which makes sense. It makes me think of the work Microsoft has been doing in its Project Astoria group (creating a framework now called ADO.NET), where they're using entity mapping to present a non-SQL-based interface to SQL-Server data. Do your RESTful APIs make use of this entity mapping? Does Zoho have plans to publish an Astoria-like interface to Zoho data?

RV: Our REST API should provide all the necessary details for developers, so we don't have plans for entity-mapping like Astoria. We would recommend CloudSQL, as the standard interface for developers, especially as we increase its coverage across Zoho applications.

To learn more about CloudSQL, visit this Zoho wiki page here.