Getting Strategic

Whether you're embarking on your normal planning for the next calendar year, or participating in emergency planning sessions in response to the economic slow-down, it's worth remembering the core attributes and benefits of a strategic plan.

Here's a summary from an earlier post.

About that Economic Slowdown

Another sign of the slowing economy: a sharp drop in retail sales in September. Here's the news from AP:

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday retail sales decreased 1.2 percent last month, nearly double the 0.7 percent drop that had been expected. It was the biggest decline since retail sales fell by 1.4 percent in August 2005.


The bigger-than-expected decline significantly increased the risks of a recession because consumer spending is two-thirds of total economic activity.

How big will this recession be? How long will it last, and what will the economy look like on the other side? Venture capitalist Paul Kedrosky offers his predictions, which include:

• "The unwinding of all this credit bubble will take longer than most people expect, and the damage will continue to be broader than most expect. Beyond banks and financial institutions, it will include many municipalities, some large-cap tech names reliant on major debt-financed network buildouts, a host of debt-financed non-financial companies, and some sovereign nations. Total cost: Bridgewater's $2.7-trillion looks close enough to me .
  
• We are already in a recession that will last well into the the fourth quarter of next year.
  
• Unemployment may touch 9% in the U.S. at trough.
  
• Housing will fall 10-15% further in U.S., and we are only beginning major declines in Canada, U.K., Australia, and elsewhere.
  
• U.S. consumers will become much more aggressive savers, both through debt reduction and direct saving. Similarly, future fiscal stimulus will largely be saved in service of this overdue need to fix domestic balance sheets.
  
• Commodities will stay under pressure for the next two years,and then reverse savagely as developed countries emerge from recession at very similar times. We have newly resynchronized the global economies, which will have immense consequences.
  
• Coming out the other side, we will see a barbell economy, with growth and investor interest at the mega-cap consolidator end, and at the entrepreneurial smaller end. The latter will be driven by major developments in clean technology, in particular, which was just given a two-year window to gestate before the major economies worldwide turn higher and begin driving energy prices straight up."
  

Read more of Paul Kedrosky's analysis here.

Two Suggestions for Social Media Strategies

A friend of mine who runs a PR agency called me yesterday, asking for my thoughts on social media strategies. Here's what I told him.

In addition to all the standard advice—start a blog, comment on other people's blogs, participate in forums, communicate and collaborate with your customers online, etc.—remember that an effective social media strategy involves both online and offline work. The online work is fairly obvious (the aforementioned blogs, etc.). The offline work may not be obvious, but it's pretty simple. Go meet with the people in your online communities. Blog about topics, then go to events where people talk about those topics. Meet new people there, and continue the relationships online. Your customers and partners are real, walking, talking, full-blooded people, not just users who who filled out profiles on your site. Meet them face-to-face, and have conversations you would never have online. If you think social media means hunkering down in a cubicle, blogging, linking, and fine-tuning SEO, think again. Social media is about being social with other people, online and off. Budget for travel. Get your social media marketing manager out there at trade shows, in restaurants, in blogger's lounges, and at any other location where your community hangs out.

Second, as I've said before about growing communities in the open source world, you've got to both "do" and "show that you do." In other words, you've got to document all your community work. If you show up at an unconference attended by 250 people in Cambridge, chances are that 50 people at most will remember meeting you (maybe 100 or 200, if you're already a big name or especially vocal or you're the guy wearing the weird hat with the flashing lights—but do people really know that guy?). None of your prospective customers in St. Louis or Chicago or London will know you went there. So you need to blog about. Post photos on Flickr. Link. Document your sociability and your community involvement. That way, your community involvement will have a much broader reach.

Ever notice that social media pundits are always posting pictures of themselves drinking good burgundy or Belgian beer with their fellow social media pundits? Now you know why. (Besides the fact that they're just having fun. Which is a good idea, too. And good burgundies should be celebrated, I suppose.)

Now, if anyone out there would like to grab a beer and continue this discussion, just let me know.